|30.01.2021 : Reskilling
The World Economic Forum points to the fact that the times of stable life-time employments are over. Due the heavy disruptions of the New Economy 04 - speeded up by the Corono Pandemic - Production, Distribution as well as the Education Sector will have to redefine their business models in the age of digitalization. For Prof.Dr.Hallier this can be seen also by the rotation of management: while he remembers in retail and industry many leaders who stayed at least for about ten years at the top of the company - now two or three years become the normal situation. "The hectic Reskilling of the Board by new company orientation is added to the necessary Life-Long Learning for the rest of employees" Hallier concludes.
"The pattern within traditional company- and HR-structures in the last century was an accumulation of know-how over the time period: at about the age of 40 years either in private companies the next generation or in other companies a new manager-generation took over : their new know-how was executed within the next 25 years. Mostly their innovative ideas where introduced within the first five years - and the rest of time was needed to penetrate the prototypes (products/ organization) to get their impacts on a larger scale. Now the shareholders become often nervous concerning a return of investment before the real roll-out of innovation has started" Hallier claims."The result are permanent take-overs (diversifications) or outsourcing (segmentation) or mergers (like also Retail Knowledge Consortia)! Reskilling/Lifelong Learning are the necessary tools for HR to survive the Darwien Revolution of permanent quick adaption on all levels" Hallier summarizes the present situation in many companies. "Those being dropped out will be the army of affluent work-force: they will create the political danger for social revolutions - and will ask for more government-involvement to subsidize ailing companies. - Education systems should be more focused on skill-training than on the transmission of learning contents. Repeated processes will be taken over by robots and AI" Hallier concludes watching innovation-cycles already for many years.
|17.01.2021 : Long-run Experience
In 1977 Germany's first pioneer of scanning the Suedmarkt/Carl Doderer informed by a letter its suppliers about the possibility to use in future the EAN bar-code. Accidentally B.Hallier at that time received a copy as an assistant of the Board of Brinkmann Cigarettes responsible for automation/innovation. He immediately started a dialogue with the CCG (today GS 1 Germany) management to analyze the system and to take action from the side of the Branded Goods Industry to integrate the bar-code into the product-design of the brands because the print at the products saved costs at the store-levels for the manual instore-merchandise by staff of industry as well as retailers. The bar-code helped to identify products immediately at the cash-zone by scanners and decreased costs in inventories.
In 1984 Hallier changed from industry to retail becoming CEO of the ISB Institute for Self-Service, merging in 1988 ISB with RGH which owned 50 percent of the shares of the predecessor of GS 1 Germany. By this Hallier could follow very closely for 25 years the next development : the generation of chip-codes which enabled with bigger data-capacities and in connection with RFID optimizations in the distribution like shelf-management/ECR etc. "Also the METRO FUTURE STORE was pushed by a booth of more than 2000 squaremeters at our EuroShop exhibition" Prof.Dr.Hallier remembers. Since 2019 Hallier is now involved in the QR-code development of the Two-dimensional Code Industry (ZIIOT) in China. "It will be an essential tool for AI and also revolutionize distribution by the link with the Internet of Things " Hallier forecasts. "I am thankful for nearly 50 years to be able to be so close to decision-makers at the different sides of the table" he summarizes his long-run experience.
|06.01.2021 : Lighthouse 2021
Unanimously the Board of ERA approved a proposal of Prof.Dr.B.Hallier to elect the Peace Nobel Laureate of 2006 Prof.Dr.M.Yunus for the Hall of Fame. Professor Muhammad Yunus - born in Bathua/Bangladesh - got his BA and MA at Dhaka University/Pakistan and his PhD at the Vanderbilt University/USA. He was teaching as an assistant professor of economics at the Middle Tennessee State University. In 1971 Prof.Yunus joined Chittagong University at his old home-town. In 2006 he got together with the Grameen Bank the Nobel Peace Prize for the idea of micro-credits/micro-finance and its application (more at Hall of Fame).
Professor Hallier got to know Professor Yunus when both visited several times the Astana Economic Forum in Kazakhstan. Especially after the Corona Pandemic and its effects on all business along the international total supply chain in 2020/2021 Professor Hallier sees a need of micro-credits/finance for the poor countries which become the loosers in the widening gaps between oversaturated markets and developing countries. "We need Lighthouses like Professor Yunus to focus an equilibrium between economics, ecology and ethics for global harmony" Prof.Hallier stated at the nomination of Professor Yunus for the Hall of Fame 2021 of the European Retail Academy. "Also studying and teaching at different places in the world and looking for applications in business Prof.Yunus and his brother with his foundation is a hope and benchmark for young people" Hallier added.
|24.12.2020 : Asian Century
Already in 2019 Prof.Dr.Hallier stated after taking part in Chongging/China at the bi-annual Asian-Pacific Retailers' Convent APREC :"After the Commonwealth Century and an American Life-Style Century now we are in an Asian Technology Century". In 2020 Hallier welcomes the foundation of the multinational trade pack RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) of 15 countries of the Asian Pacific area.
"Already since David Ricardo (1772 - 1823) we know that International Trade is promoting global wealth" he recalled Economic Theory and Observations of World Trade. "It is worth mentioning that Ricardo published in 1817 this extension of the research of work-division of Adam Smith - two years after the Vienna Congress where after the Napoleon War Europe was restructured and import/exports revitalized" Hallier recalls history. "The countries of RCEP accumulate about 30 percent of the present world population and will gain bigger GNPs than Europe till 2050 due to their different age-structure" Hallier added. "Regional multinational sub-systems may reactivate also WTO and by this stabilize World Peace." Prof.Hallier has been travelled Asia since 1974 - being apart of lectures following for nearly two decades as a member of the Jury of Retail Asia the technical developments of the major players and having also taken part in the award-ceremony when the APREC-network got the Peace Circle Chair Collection Certificate of the Chinese Government in 2019 (see picture).
|15.12.2020 : Game Changers
Nikolai Kondratieff was the first who published in 1926 observations about innovations having long-term effects on macro-economic levels : 1939 called "Kondratieff-Cycles" by Joseph Schumpeter. A period of innovation driven by cotton/steam engine (1800) was followed by railways/steel production (1850) , electrical engineering/chemestry (1900), petrochemical industry/automobiles (1950) and information-technology/revitalization of global trade networks for sourcing and distribution(2000). Prof.Dr.B.Hallier defines as the next Kondratieff-Cycle the Lithium Production/Applications of Lithium/ Crypto-Currencies in a world of Smart Economies. Lithium production will replace the petroleum production in the impact of the geopolitical power-play according to Hallier. Taken the period of 1974-2018 measured in metric tonnes Australia leads by 123.206 units, followed by China (45.747), Zimbabwe ((34.604), Canada (22.097) and Chile (16.137). "South America is expected to increase its volume by roughly 200 percent in the next decade" Hallier expects.
Hallier mainly has registered himself for some decades the major disruptions of wholesale/retail since the year 1800 : showing a permanent evolution in frog-leaping jumps of 25 years : the last steps AmericanLifeStyle/supermarkets (1950) , hypermarkets/big boxes/shopping centers and Information Technology (1975) , chip-technology/RFID/tracing tracking and B2B/B2C internet (2000) , mobile shopping, social media, cashless payment (2025) , data-clouds, block-chain technology, the Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence - new Retail Knowledge Consortia by mixed players having originally their competences in mass-data business, in process-optimization, in delivery-services (2050). "Covid 19 is beaming its winners of the total supply chain as well as the traditional retail/wholesale institutional definitions as also the obsolete destinction of store types into the hybrid/digital world of the cycle 2050 already now. The new cycle will be dominated by players who we do not know yet as Retailers " Hallier claims. "Covid 19 is together with the new technologies a game-changer : like in Darwinism only those will survive who adapt quickly ! - The bottleneck between pilot-projects and the big impact 25 years later seems to be the delay in learning and behaviour" Hallier assumes reflecting the macro- as well as the sector- and micro-level studies about innovation reported in Applied Sciences. "Furtheron the personal mind-set needed for those changes will be different due to ethnological and historical developments in each country as well as dependant on financial resources available in poor/rich countries : disruptions very often widen the gap not only economically but also in respect to ecology or ethics". Hallier stated.