|20.09.2022 : Mental Leadership
Mikhail S.Gorbachov was during his time as a president of the SU not only the top-executive of the Communist Party but a real Leader with his own inspirations Glasnost and Perestroica. He understood the miners of Kemerovo who had not been paid decently and he realized the wishes of the different people of the COMECON for a better life-style. In the eyes of Prof.Dr.B.Hallier it was less a political but mainly an evolution/revolution driven by Consumerism. The break-down of the SU and the COMECON which followed made M.Gorbachov in Russia a persona non-grata : in Germany he became a Hero of the Hearts because he enabled a Peaceful Reunion of East- and West Germany. For Hallier this was the beginning of an emotional Love Story between Germany and Russia, because it created the dream of a global House of Harmony with the strategic aims to balance economics, ecology and ethics worldwide. "And judged in terms of macro-economics it was also the basis for an extrem growth of the Wealth of Nations internationally since the beginning of this Century" Hallier claims. "The theoretical background for those effects can be found already in the work of Adam Smith and David Ricardo about national and international specialisation of work-processes/sourcing" Hallier taught.
"Taken now the military actions against the Ukraine and internal subpression by a mislead President in the Kremlin should not result in condemning the total of Russian people because it is not fair to blame also those who would like to follow the Rules of Humanity but who will be punished to spell out their real feelings." Hallier stated in a discussion with professors and students from the ERA-network. "For many Russians but also a generation of people from the West who invested about 30 years of their lifes in building Trust between the countries which had been fighting in World War II as enemies a great political and economic Dream has crashed. Perhaps we have been sometimes too naive in our thinking and actions - but on the other hand without trying new ways nothing new will happen. Therefore the last 30 years of cooperations with Russia have not been in vain or subject to be discredited in total - even when strategic or tactical tools seem in a review to have been partly wrong - but they have been also a proof for our followers who expect real Leadership from their professors: Trial and Error belong to the tool-box of innovation in a market-economy. M.Gorbachov is a benchmark for such an attitude of a mental Leadership in applied sciences to change markets for the better! In 50 years the history-books will praise also in Russia and othe countries of the former SU the importance of that outstanding Game-Changer " Hallier summarized.
|10.09.2022 : Economic Storms
Within the first half year of 2022 in Germany the number of exhibitors at fairs has declined by roughly 30 percent - the number of visitors by 45 percent. Main reason was Covid which is still a limitation for travels from Asia. As an indicator for the effects of Covid on national growth is China : the growth of GNP has declined from 5.5 percent to 0.5 percent. For the second half of 2022 as well as for 2023 Prof.Dr.B.Hallier expects an additional worldwide decline due to the Disruption between East and West , the delays within the global Total Supply Chain and the Energy Crisis in Western Europe in Winter 2022/23 which according to Hallier will lead to the collapse of businesses in diverse sectors with the result of an increase of unemployment and a low level of consumer spending.
"We have to prepare for heavy seas sailing through those economic storms" Hallier states in a preview about EuroShop in February 2023 " but being the Number 1 worldwide within this sector - we will remain the Light-House of orientation ! Nevertheless adaptation will be the stress-test for all players at the supply and demand-side : the speed of selection (Darwinism) will increase with mixing traditional offers in shopfitting with omni-channel-concepts and even entertainement and gaming with avatares in a Metaversum. Nevertheless Retail will remain a modern element of urban life-style" Hallier forecasts, " but the time for the ROI might be delayed till the economic upswing in 2024/2025. But those who miss the Lighthouse in 2023 will be taken out of the global race automatically when the sky clears again" Hallier states.
|31.08.2022 : Accelleration by Disruption
Accelleration by Disruption
Reviewing innovation rhythems of the last 200 years the world can be devided according to Prof.Dr.B.Hallier between those countries which mainly provided raw materials like coal, oil, gas or grain and those countries which created profits by processing those raw materials. Mostly those two categories could be defined also as developing countries in terms of its industrial power and developed countries which have the know how of gaining added value by the production for industry or consumers. In the last decades some countries additionally experimented with Special Economic Zones like China or India or they started to diversify in tourism like Dubai or Quatar; they are called transformers by Hallier.
The radical global disruption of the worldwide total supply chain since February 2022 will shake-up the path of common growth of those three Panels : Hallier sees a set-back for the next three to five years for the affluent societies in the West; but in the medium to long-term prognosis accellerating innovations and profits in the Category C . "Consumers are forced to learn adaption to the financial and political changes to save energy and to switch to sustainable solutions; industry is speeding up its research to survive the energy and total supply chain crisis in an effort of industrial Darwinism; national governments and international agencies support speedily the changes by dropping administrative restrictions and providing financial incentives for modernization like for example a developing alliance between Canada and Germany in the sector of hydrogine. All those activities will boost the economies of Typ C in the Cycle 2025 -2050" Hallier expects. " The gap between Model A and C will become greater than in the beginning of this decade" Hallier concludes.
|20.08.2022 : Promoting Life-Style
According to Prof.Dr.B.Hallier since about the year 1875 department houses with their big textile assortments and accessoires took over the lead to determine for nearly 100 years the fashion for the urban life-style communities in Europe. In the beginning the windows of the top players down-town have been the anchors of public strolls through the malls in the European capitals and other big cities - as for example the painting of August Macke from 1914 shows.
After World War II the American Way of Life enlarged with key-words like marketing, promotions and events the scope of possibilities to catch the eyes of consumers. In Germany Sabina Wansart prepared for two decades this field of activities for the Kaufhof-Group, one of the big players in the category of department-stores . Her oeuvre is collected by Dr.J. Moch , himself famous for running one of the oldest tailor-and display mannequin - factories with customers globally founded in 1907. He together with Prof.Hallier and two trainees from Finland and Vietnam selected the material for a YouTube Introduction for a time-travel through the period 1970-1990 : see more : YouTube
| 02.08.2022 : New Mind Set
"The dream for an Integration of the whole world into One World Model with common values in all facettes of life in a Global House of Harmony has crashed in 2022" Prof.Dr.B.Hallier stated in a letter to his ERA-professors and -students "Perhaps the Future Model is Living together in Diversity - Learning to accept Differences" ! He saw this slogan as an exchange-student in 1973 at the Higashi-Hanganji Temple in Kyoto which had been built in 1602 by the Shogun Ieyasu who united Japan's aristocrates.
"The claim of common values is as long a fake as already in the United Nations there is still a Veto right for super powers wich is a remaining tool of Colonialism when many African States had not been independant - furtheron it is not acceptable if in a World of Equals governments of big powers like Russia and the USA do not accept The International Court of Justice as a joint decision maker ! If we are honest those are parameters of a philosophy which belong to geopolitical power plays and not to a Global House of Harmony. If we are not ready to change these basics we should be modest to accept limited agreements between nations or between local tribes as a Unity of Diversity : not more but also no less" Hallier concluded for a new Mind Set.